Lanier is entered in the Forego Stakes as the morning line favorite at Turfway Park. He’s an 8-year-old gelding with 36 starts under his belt and is about to have his 37th start. His best performance going into this race is a [G3] win.
His sire is Lewis Michael looked to be a good blue-collar horse. He raced as a 2-year-old up to a 5-year-old for a total of 23 starts and earned a little more than $800,000. As a sire, he’s been good, but not popular. He has 10 crops and 176 horses of racing age including 19 2-year-olds.
His breeder did a great job with a full DP of (9-7-17-1-2) making a DI of 2.13 and a CD of .56. This would make him most successful at a distance of 8-8.5 furlongs. His AWD was 8.2 furlongs, which is right where he should be. What I like most about him as a horse is how long he raced. I’m not a big fan of horses that race a handful of times and then retired to stud. Not only did he race several years longer than the average sire, but some of his top progeny has also done the same thing racing at older ages. For instance, Lanier is racing at 8 years old. Lewys Vaporizer is another top progeny that has already raced this year as an 8-year-old.
So he might not be the flashiest, but breeding horses that are able to race this long are a great testament to his conformation soundness.
His momma is a placed horse that ran 10 times. She has a bit of black type buried deeper in the pedigree in the 4th dam. There isn’t much that indicates this horse should be a huge success from the female side of the pedigree. This horse has probably done as good as he has based on the horsemanship of the owners and trainers rather than the pedigree itself.
Now let’s take a look at Lanier. His DP is (3-6-9-0-0) with a DI of 3 and a CD of .67. So he would be better at races around 7.5 to 8 furlongs. This particular race is 6.5 furlongs, so a little shorter than I would have expected based on his dosage, but still in the realm of possibilities. His AWD is 7.5, so this 6.5 race isn’t out of left field, but I’d rather see him race at 8 furlongs.
My one hesitation on this horse is he’s been in a rut. In May 2019, he won a G3 race, then dropped in class to 2 listed races where he finished in the back, dropped in class again to allowance optional claimers and 2 of those. Now he’s moving up in class. I’m guessing the trainer feels good about him after those two wins, but I’m wary of a horse moving up in class most of the time.
He fiddled out and didn’t do too well in his race. He was in the middle of the pack most of the race and had an empty tank on the home stretch and couldn’t match the speed other horses were throwing at him. 🙁